23考研外刊阅读《经济学人》双语精读版训练
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全文字数：1624字
阅读时间：15分钟
上期翻译答案
But the complexity of the food systemhas madeit challenging to measure how much carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is a direct result of the system’s emissions, particularly those from transportation.
但是，食物系统的复杂性使得测量大气中有多少二氧化碳是直接由该系统排放的结果，尤其是判断有多少是运输排放的，变得具有挑战性。
《本期内容》
双语阅读
The world’s population is expected to reach 8bn on November 15th. But, such is the uncertainty with counting every person on the planet, that milestone may already have been reached. India is forecast to surpass China as the world’s mostpopulouscountry in 2023 or soon thereafter. The UN hedges its predictions even as it makes them. A new forecast published on July 11th says that the world’s population will reach 9.7bn in 2050, 800m more than it thought in 2002. By 2100 the world will contain between 8.9bn and 12.4bn people, with a 50/50 chance that its population will be shrinking.
世界人口预计将在11月15日达到80亿。不过，因为难以保证把地球上所有人逐个数一遍，这个里程碑说不定已经达到了。印度预计将在2023年或之后不久超过中国，成为世界上人口最多的国家。联合国的人口预测精度不高。7月11日发布的一项新预测称，到2050年，世界人口将达到97亿，比它在2002年的预测增加了8亿。到2100年，世界将拥有89亿至124亿人口，有一半的可能性人口将开始减少。
Just a handful of countries are expected to lie behind population growth. The UN forecasts that 43% of the increase between now and 2050 will come from five: the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria and Pakistan. America will remain the third-largest country in 2050, with 375m inhabitants, after it has added another 40m people. Nigeria will add four times that number and be nearly as big as America. It will displace Indonesia as the fourth-most-populous place.
预计只有一小批国家的人口会增长。联合国预测，从现在到2050年，43%的增长将来自五个国家：刚果民主共和国、埃塞俄比亚、印度、尼日利亚和巴基斯坦。美国到2050年仍将是人口第三大国，在增加4000万人之后将拥有3.75亿居民。尼日利亚增加的人口数量将四倍于美国的增长，从而接近美国的总人口规模。它将取代印度尼西亚成为人口第四大国。
Some countries are helping the Earth’s population tolevel out. This year 41 countries and territories are expected to lose more people than they gain from births and immigration. Ukraine’s population,ravagedby war, will shrink by around 7m. The population of Europe, the world’s oldest region, with a median age of 42 years, began shrinking in 2020 after peaking at 747m. By 2050 it is forecast to have 40m fewer inhabitants than it does today.
有些国家正在帮助平衡地球人口。今年预计将有41个国家和地区失去的人口超过出生和移民所增加的人口。饱受战争蹂躏的乌克兰将减少约700万人。翻译划线句，长按文末小程序码打卡，答案下期公布~到2050年预计将比现在少4000万人。
It is a safer bet that the distribution of humanity across the world will shift dramatically. Europe started on the path to population decline in the 1970s after the number of births per woman fell below 2.1—the level needed to replace people who die. It has since fallen to 1.5. Fertility in Africa, the world’s youngest region, is nearly three times Europe’s, and it will not fall below replacement rate until 2090. Births in Africa will increase even as the number of births per woman falls. By 2050, 25% of the world’s population will be African.
一个更可靠的预测是，世界各地的人口分布将发生巨大变化。欧洲人口在上世纪70年代启动了通往下坡之路，当时每名欧洲女性生育孩子的数量降到了2.1这个维持总人口稳定所需的“替代率”之下。之后已不断下跌至1.5。非洲是世界上最年轻的地区，生育率是欧洲的近三倍，并且要到2090年才会低于替代率。即使每名女性生育子女的数量下降，非洲出生的人口也会增加。到2050年，四分之一的世界人口都将是非洲人。
These demographic shifts will have geopolitical consequences. By 2050 China will be 8% smaller. Meanwhile, India’s population will continue growing,albeitat a gradually slower rate, peaking at 1.7bn in 2064, nearly 50% higher than in China. That will add weight to its claim to play a much greater role in world affairs.
这些人口结构上的变化将产生地缘政治后果。到2050年中国人口将减少8%。与此同时印度的人口将继续增长，尽管速度会逐渐放缓，到2064年将达到17亿的峰值，比中国高出近50%。这会让印度有更大的底气主张自己在世界事务中发挥更大作用。
本文节选自：The Economist（经济学人）
发布时间：2022.07.27
作者：People watching
原文标题：The pecking order of the world’s population is soon to change
词汇积累
1.populous
英 [ˈpɒpjələs]美 [ˈpɑːpjələs]
adj.人口众多的；人口密集的
2.ravage
英 [ˈrævɪdʒ]美 [ˈrævɪdʒ]
vt.蹂躏；毁坏；损坏；严重损害
n.灾害；破坏；暴力
3.albeit
英 [ˌɔːlˈbiːɪt]美 [ˌɔːlˈbiːɪt]
conj.尽管；虽然
词组搭配
1.level out （数字或数量）趋向平缓，趋于稳定；（飞机在爬升或下降后）进入平飞
2.peak at
写作句总结
原句：Meanwhile, India’s population will continue growing, albeit at a gradually slower rate, peaking at 1.7bn in 2064, nearly 50% higher than in China.
结构：XX will continue growing, albeit at a gradually slower rate, peaking at XX in XX, nearly 50% higher than in XX.
例句：The temperature will continue growing, albeit at a gradually slower rate, peaking at 38 degree celsius in the south China, nearly 50% higher than in the north.
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23考研外刊阅读《经济学人》双语精读版训练